Housing market figures in the first quarter of 2021

Historically low housing inventory pushes up house selling prices in the Netherlands by almost 15%

The housing market in the Netherlands remains unprecedentedly tight. This is evident from the housing market figures for the first quarter of 2021 published by the Dutch Association of Estate Agents (NVM), with sharp increase in prices and rising scarcity and overbidding.

The average selling price of an existing house rose in the first quarter of 2021 to € 385,000. This is an increase of almost 15% compared to the first quarter of 2020. This hasn’t happened in the last 20 years. Halfway through the first quarter of 2021, some 17,500 homes were for sale in the Netherlands, 42% less than a year ago. This is the lowest level since 1995 when this measuring began. There were 6.8% fewer existing owner-occupied houses sold in the Netherlands than in the first quarter of 2020, the lowest number since 2015. The scarcity indicator for existing homes in the Netherlands reached a low of 1.7 in the first quarter of 2021. This means that buyers once again have less than two houses to choose from. The price of a newly built home rose to an average of € 433,000 in the first quarter of 2021, compared to € 400,000 in the first quarter of 2020.  The number of new homes sold in the Netherlands rose by almost 14% to 9,700 in the first quarter of 2021. Halfway through the first quarter of 2021, 11,100 new homes were for sale in the Netherlands, 22% fewer than a year earlier.

What is happening in the housing market is unprecedented. The low interest rate, the enormous housing shortage and the stable socio-economic outlook are the cause of the tightness and pushing prices up further. Under these circumstances, our NVM estate agents work hard every day to serve their clients and provide expert assistance in the purchase and sale of their homes. More than ever, the NVM considers it an express task for the next cabinet to prioritise tackling the housing shortage in a comprehensive manner, as the NVM also advocated in the Housing Agenda in February of this year. This really goes further than simply building more houses. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is also clear about this in its recent report ‘Housing after the elections’, with its powerful plea for a regional approach and a faster permit system to build homes. At the same time, the Planning Bureau notes that a shortage of professionals is limiting the capacity of the construction sector. As far as the NVM is concerned, it is high time to ring the alarm bells. Varied, affordable and financially-responsible living is the foundation of a sustainable and healthy society. The Covid-19 crisis has gripped the Netherlands for more than a year. Never before has the value of home enjoyment for the wellbeing of our society been so clearly visible as it is now. The need is high; a new Minister with specific responsibility for spatial planning and housing is essential to turn the tide.

The NVM states that more than 60% of homes sold in the Netherlands are sold above the asking price and that the level of overbids also continues to rise. NVM estate agents operate in an overheated market. They can only sell a house once, and for every happy buyer, many disappointed bidders are left behind. The NVM therefore sees buyers in this market taking more risks when buying a house. That is a worrisome development. In this absurd market situation, the best and worst emerge, and that is what we as NVM estate agents must be alert to. NVM estate agents act as professional service providers for buyers and sellers within the current market dynamics. The challenge is for buyers, sellers and NVM estate agents to keep a cool head. Together, we have to bring balance back to the market, also by building in a more focused and demand-driven way.

Regional differences
Compared to the last quarter of 2020, it is striking that in a large part in the northern part of Netherlands, average sales prices have risen sharply, for example in the regions of Opsterland and southwest of Drenthe, sometimes by more than 20%. This fits with the increasing interest in the rural area and shows that there is more mobility in the overall housing market. In the four largest cities, prices rose by 14% to 16% compared to a year earlier, except in Amsterdam. There, price development is the lowest in the Netherlands at +7%. This is mainly due to the fact that Amsterdam has many flats and the houses are already highly priced.

Existing housing development in the Netherlands in figures

• There were 30,739 houses sold in the first quarter of 2021, 6.8% less than in the first quarter of 2020. On an annual basis, NVM estate agents sold almost 152,000 houses.
• The transaction price in the first quarter of 2021 was € 385,000, an annual increase of 14.7%, which has not been seen since 2001.
• The price of detached houses rose the fastest: 19.2% in one year; the price of flats and mid-terrace houses rose by more than 14% in one year.
• Over 60% of the homes were sold above the asking price; on average, all homes sold were 3.5% above the asking price.
• It now takes 30 days for a house to be sold, which is comparable to much of last year.

Currently on the market in the Netherlands

• The Netherlands has never had a tighter existing housing market than now, with a tightness indicator of 1.7.
• Counting the number of houses for sale began in 1995. Halfway through the first quarter of 2021 (reference date 14 February), there were over 17,500 houses for sale. This is the lowest number ever since 1995 and 42% less than a year ago. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, it is 31% less.
• The asking price for the average house for sale was €495,000, an increase of 10% compared to 2020.
• The duration of the offer, i.e. the average time in days that a house is for sale, is now 97 days. This is more than a month shorter than in the first quarter of 2020, when it was 134 days.

Newly-constructed homes in the Netherlands

• In the first quarter of 2021, NVM estate agents sold almost 14% more newly-built homes than a year earlier. This concerns approximately 9,700 newly-built homes.
• The supply of newly-built homes for sale, at 11,100, was 22% lower than a year earlier. Compared to the previous year, a similar number of new homes were put up for sale (6,900).
• The price of the average newly-built home sold increased by almost 8% in one year to an average of € 433,000 in the first quarter of 2021. A year earlier, this was still € 400,000.

The figures in our region

In the Municipality of The Hague, 2.3% more houses (913) were sold in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020. Compared to the previous quarter, 25% fewer houses were sold. The average transaction price in the first quarter of 2021 was € 415,100. Compared to a year ago, the average transaction price rose by 11.8% and compared to the previous quarter by 7.3%. The average selling time in the Municipality of The Hague remained the same in the first quarter of 2021 as it was a year ago, at 32 days.

Compared to the first quarter of 2020, the Municipality of Delft saw a drop in transactions (175 houses) of 4.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, 29.3% fewer homes were sold. The average selling price in the first quarter of 2021 was € 364,000. Compared to a year ago, this is a price increase of 16.9%, and compared to the previous quarter, a price increase of 0.9%. The average selling time in the first quarter of 2021 is 31 days versus 44 days a year ago.

In Westland, 25% fewer homes were sold compared to the first quarter of 2020 (156 homes). Compared to the previous quarter, 24.3% fewer houses were sold. Prices in Westland rose by 19% compared to a year ago, and by 7.8% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price is € 415,600 and the average selling time is 31 days, compared to 49 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Rijswijk, the number of sales rose by 1.4% (109 homes) compared to the first quarter and 30.3% fewer homes were sold compared to the previous quarter. Prices rose by 9.8% compared to a year ago and by 5.2% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 340,500. The average selling time is 27 days, compared to 48 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Wassenaar, the number of sales rose by 23.3% (89 homes) compared to the first quarter and 2.4% less homes were sold compared to the previous quarter. Prices rose by 26.3% compared to a year ago and by 18.7% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 908,600. The average selling time is 96 days, compared to 134 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Zoetermeer, the number of sales has dropped by 17.8% (215 homes) compared to the first quarter and 14.2% fewer homes have been sold compared to the previous quarter. Prices rose by 11.2% compared to a year ago and by 3.4% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 330,900. The average selling time is 30 days, compared to 33 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Leidschendam-Voorburg, the number of sales dropped by 13% (162 houses) compared to the first quarter and by 29.6% compared to the previous quarter. Prices rose by 10.1% compared to a year ago and by 5.6% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 448,200. The average selling time is 28 days, compared to 35 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Pijnacker-Nootdorp, the number of sales rose by 17.8% (94 homes) compared to the first quarter, and 12% fewer homes were sold compared to the previous quarter. Prices rose by 18.9% compared to a year ago and by 5% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 475,100. The average selling time is 36 days, compared to 35 days a year ago.

In the Municipality of Lansingerland (Berkel en Rodenrijs, Bergschenhoek and Bleiswijk), the number of sales dropped by 36.1% (84 houses) compared to the first quarter and 24.7% fewer houses were sold compared to the previous quarter. The price rose by 20.2% compared to a year ago and by 5.4% compared to the previous quarter. The average transaction price currently stands at € 517,000. The average selling time is 46 days versus 53 days a year ago.

Source: NVM